ForeignPolicy.com

Over the last nine months, the Sudan policy review has taken on something of a mythical air. Activists and others lost count of the number of times they were told the review would be completed "in weeks, not months" -- even as months stretched on. Tales of sharp-elbowed infighting between the U.S. special envoy for Sudan, retired Maj. Gen. Scott Gration, and the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Susan Rice, dominated the narrative. So did a series of high-profile gaffes, ranging from the absurd -- with the special envoy talking of handing out "cookies" and "gold stars" to Sudan's ruling National Congress Party -- to the just plain bizarre, as former National Security Advisor Bud McFarlane was found to be lobbying the administration to normalize relations with Sudan, after receiving $1.3 million from Khartoum passed through Qatar.

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As the Obama administration's Sudan policy review drags on, the Sudanese government, led by a wanted war criminal, President Omar Hassan al-Bashir, clearly looks to Washington and dreams of normalizing relations. So how has Bashir tried to work his way back into the good graces of the United States? Well, there has been a recent spate of government attacks in Darfur, and a recent Small Arms Survey report suggests that most of the new and heavier weaponry appearing in militia clashes in South Sudan likely comes from government stockpiles. Certainly, the government has not given the slightest suggestion that it will hand Bashir over to the International Criminal Court to face charges. Khartoum has not been on a charm offensive.

Instead of actually changing its behavior, Sudan's ruling National Congress Party wants to return to favor in Washington the old-fashioned way: by swamping a bunch of high-powered lobbyists in a sea of money to make its case.

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A few hours after news from a blogger roundtable with U.S. Envoy to Sudan, Scott Gration, filters out (see here and here), members of the advocacy community spoke with FP about their reactions to his statements. Here's a few key excerpts.

 Imagine if we had enjoyed the luxury of knowing, two years before it happened, that Yugoslavia would disintegrate in 1991. Or just think if U.S. diplomats had been able to predict years earlier exactly when the Soviet Union was going to collapse. One certainly hopes the United States would have been better positioned to deal with these momentous events. But a current case gives one pause. Sudan might very well split in half in precisely two years, and policymakers have taken far too little notice.

Continue reading this post by Enough's Executive Director John Norris on ForeignPolicy.com's blog "The Argument."

In a speech last night at New York University, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice spelled out the Obama administration's vision for U.N. and global engagement. Her tone was decidedly upbeat -- almost valedictory -- and it came as no surprise to hear her happily declare, "It is a great time to be the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations." After eight years of hostility from the George W. Bush administration, two of which were spent under Ambassador John Bolton (who left little tiny shoes to fill), the high-spirited atmospherics were to be expected. The new administration, in stark contrast to its predecessor, has brought a wholesale shift in mood and attitude to Washington's relations with the United Nations. With it has come a jump in the step of diplomats walking the hallways in Turtle Bay. But Rice's speech, which was a good one, also deserves a very careful reading. Some important things were left out.

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When we published the 10 Stories You Missed in 2008 late last year, we couldn't have guessed how much this one would keep popping up: conflict in Southern Sudan stands to escalate, we reported. Today, a court ruling on one border town's boundaries sets the stage for how things could unfold in coming months. 

Abyei has always been, literally, at the center of the conflict between the North and South. Both sides armed proxies in the area during the civil war. Despite the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), many factions remain armed in anticipation of a referendum in 2011, in which the South can decide between autonomy and independence from the rest of Sudan. The risk of conflict at that time is real. Says Enough Project's Colin Thomas-Jensen, "There is a genuine reluctance on part of Sudan People's Liberation Movement, [the ruling party in the South], to disarm its proxies when they know they might need them again."  

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