Sudan Now

The news that Enough broke yesterday of a contingent of the Lord Resistance Army moving into Darfur generated considerable interest from a variety of regional actors.

Some of the reactions, while predictable, were interesting for simply being over the top. An LRA spokesman in Nairobi said the LRA “would like to dismiss this baseless report with all the contempt it deserves” – which makes one wonder why the spokesman can't muster a bit of contempt for his own organization’s long track record of committing war crimes. Colonel Michael Anywar and Justine Labeja, representatives of the LRA’s political wing in the Kenyan capital, claimed that the Sudanese government stopped supporting the LRA in 2002. Both LRA officials quoted from Nairobi participated in the most recent round of peace talks in 2006, but it is unclear how closely they are linked to the fighters in the field.

The Ugandan president weighed in on the news today in a press conference in Kampala. He said he received reports from the Ugandan army a month ago saying that the LRA’s messianic leader, Joseph Kony, had “disappeared” and that the group he travels with crossed over the border from the Central African Republic to Darfur. After pushing the LRA out of northern Uganda, the Ugandan army received authorization from the governments of Congo, southern Sudan, and CAR to track the LRA in their territory.

President Museveni also seized the opportunity to point out that the Sudanese government – a longtime adversary with whom Uganda shares a history of providing safe haven to each other’s rebel groups  – has been a patron of the LRA in the past. If Khartoum provides a cover for Kony in Darfur, “it makes no difference because they supported him much more in the past,” Museveni said. “But whatever they gave him, we captured." The fact that the Ugandan president has accused the LRA of moving into Darfur would seem to ensure that this story will continue to play out for some time.

The response from Sudan came from the government’s representative at the United Nations, the outgoing Ambassador Abdalmahmoud Abdalhaleem, who, it must be noted, doesn’t tend toward bland, diplomatic statements. The ambassador blasted Enough, saying that the report was meant to derail the “peace train” for Darfur, currently making a stopover in Doha. As a note to the outgoing ambassador, the peace train rhetoric and LRA denials might be a little more believable if the Government of Sudan hadn't long lied about its previous support to the LRA and wasn't currently engaged in attacks in Darfur that have claimed hundreds of lives in recent weeks.

Coincidentally, news of the LRA in Darfur occurred a day after the U.S. Senate passed legislation calling for the Obama administration to devise a strategy for militarily defeating the LRA. That job just got more complicated now that it appears Kony and Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir, both wanted for war crimes and crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court, have once again teamed up.

To date, U.S. officials have insisted simply that they can neither confirm nor deny the LRA presence in Darfur. Here is hoping that Congressional leaders can push for an answer that is considerably more forthcoming than that.

Technorati Tags: Darfur and Southern Sudan Eastern Congo Northern Uganda Omar al-Bashir Prevention Protection Sudan Now War Crimes

A definite advantage to being based in Juba for a researcher like me is having access to Sudanese news publications on a daily basis. There are a number of northern Sudanese papers available online in Arabic, in addition to a few popular online Sudan news sources in English (Sudantribune.com and Gurtong.net are good places to start, and see the blog Roving Bandit for some more links to mainly southern-focused sites).

However, the most widely read southern Sudanese papers are not available online. Reading these papers provides an excellent glimpse into the issues that southerners think are important. From op-eds to general news articles, papers like The Citizen (which is printed in Khartoum and flown down to Juba daily, because there is not yet a functioning printing press in Juba) present a southern perspective that is well worth paying attention to. Here are some clips from some local English language daily papers from the past week:

‘We as women, we are happy that [the] Government gave 25% [through the women’s party list procedure passed in the South Sudan Legislative Assembly]. However, still there are opportunities of upgrading it to 50% as long as the attainment of total peace is concerned in Southern Sudan and Sudan in general,’ said Mrs. Jennifer Babel, Chairlady for Women Union in Central Equatoria.
-- “Women call for peace building through gender equity,” (Juba Post, March 11-15)

…raising the problem of the Nile water with countries that share the water should be approached in a quiet and rational manner that takes into account the interest of all parties without discrimination and under the principle that negotiations are the best avenue no matter how great the problems are.
-- “The Nile Water predicament,” (The Ciitzen, March 8)

[In Central Equatoria] 50% in Juba expected Kiir to win because, according to them, power, the army and everything is in the hands of SPLM [the ruling party in the South]. The also believed that Kiir would be President of GoSS with or without elections.
 --Selected results from public opinion poll conducted by Vision Center for Public Opinion Studies on prospects of candidates for the Presidency of the GoSS [360 people were polled in Upper Nile, Western Bahr-al-Ghazal, Jonglei and Central Equatoria states] (The Citizen, March 3)

Some people and political parties are continuously calling for the delay of the coming elections for more preparation and for the participation of the Darfur region. I also ask why not delay the elections if there is the possibility of the participation of Darfur! I also prefer the delay of the elections, but there needs doubling [of] the political efforts to solve the Darfur crisis during that period.
--“New Dawn” column by Ahmed Adam titled “Current political issues,” (Khartoum Monitor, March 6)

A magazine called The Parliamentarian provides yet another perspective. Its Editor-in-Chief is Dr. Julia Aker Duany, a respected southern Sudanese scholar and current under-secretary of the Ministry of Parliamentary Affairs in the Government of Southern Sudan. In her “Editor’s Notes” from the January edition of the magazine, Dr. Duany writes:

One item that I can unequivocally state is that in the Sudan there is never a dull moment…Unlike all of the political punditry online, local, and international media have stated, Sudan has not fallen back into a chaotic war, residing into the depths of a failed state. We are not perfect, by any means, but we are managing our delicate relationship in this experiment called the Comprehensive Peace Agreement.

As the elections approach and the campaign season continues at full swing, I’ll try to post clips from local papers from time to time to highlight the array of opinions from southern Sudanese media on the polls.

Photo: Journalist Nhial Deng at the Juba office of the newspaper The Citizen (Enough/Laura Heaton)

Technorati Tags: Darfur and Southern Sudan Peace Prevention Protection Sudan Election Sudan Now

This post originally appeared today on Foreign Policy.

The Lord's Resistance Army has come to Darfur, Sudan, and that is not good news for anyone. The Lord's Resistance Army is a vicious militia led by self-proclaimed messiah Joseph Kony, and though he does not appear to be with the contingent that has moved into Darfur, Kony is widely and rightly regarded as one of the most heinous war criminals still on the loose in the entire world.

The Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) has long operated as a hybrid between a cult and a rebel army. Kony and the LRA originally sprang up in northern Uganda and waged a brutal campaign trying to overthrow that country's government. Millions of Ugandans fled the fighting, and the LRA engaged in virtually every depravity known in warfare. The LRA's ranks have been swelled with kidnapped child soldiers, girls are regularly treated as sex slaves, and innocent civilians are maimed and killed in a fashion too brutal to describe.

In recent years, Kony and his forces have fallen on harder times, though their brutality has not diminished. Dislodged from northern Uganda, Kony and his troops first fled into northeastern Congo and
then the Central African Republic. However, the Ugandan army -- with quiet assistance from the United States -- has remained in dogged pursuit of Kony and his forces. The LRA is a relatively small force these days, probably numbering less than 1,000 hard-core fighters who remain loyal to Kony, but it is still causing mayhem and suffering well disproportionate to its size. Kony and his men have killed around 2,000 civilians in the last year and driven another 450,000 from their homes. Although the Ugandan offensive against Kony has suffered some significant missteps along the way, it has put increasing pressure on the LRA.

Just this week, the Enough Project learned from multiple, credible sources in the field that elements of the LRA had crossed into Darfur. These forces appear to be seeking safe haven under the protection of the Sudanese military, and Sudan's notorious president, Omar Hassan al-Bashir, has been a longtime LRA patron, so this does not come as a surprise. Clearly, Kony and his deputies believe that Sudan is one of the few places left where the Ugandan army will not pursue them, and they are likely increasingly desperate.

The even larger story is what all of this says about Sudan and Bashir at a time when U.S. diplomacy has been geared to striking a new tone in the relationship. Although Bashir has been eager to portray himself as willing to repair relations with the world after last year's International Criminal Court indictment, and the United States in particular, giving safe haven to the LRA is yet another slap at Darfuris, at Washington, and at fundamental human decency. The evidence clearly suggests that advance LRA scouts coordinated with Sudanese armed forces well in advance of the LRA's arrival in Darfur, and it seems implausible that local Sudanese armed forces commanders would welcome the group in Darfur without seeking approval from Khartoum, including Bashir. There are also suggestions that the LRA has received direct logistical support from the Sudanese army since arriving in Darfur.

Click here to continue reading.

Photo: Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir

Technorati Tags: Darfur and Southern Sudan International Criminal Court Omar al-Bashir Prevention Protection Punishment Sudan Election Sudan Now Violence Against Women War Crimes

Arrests and intimidation of civil society leaders in both North and South Sudan last week underscored the continued stifling of opposition and civil society groups during the country’s crucial campaigning stage, with a little over a month left before elections.

Southern security personnel raided two radio stations in Juba on Wednesday, threatening and arresting the general manager of Liberty FM and director of Bakhita, a Catholic radio station. According to a Reuters interview, the armed men who entered the premises of Liberty FM said they were South Sudanese police. One station manager who was taken to a police station was told: “You are producing bad programs that bring hatred of the people.” The station manager said Liberty FM had aired an interview with an independent candidate running for the governor seat in Central Equatoria state.

The raid on Bakhita Radio led to a strongly-worded response from the Catholic Archdiocese of Juba which condemned the act: “The Catholic Church and Bakhita Radio have no political affiliation and take no sides with any political party. We will not accept church personnel and institutions to be treated as criminals.”

The Association for Media Development in South Sudan says the harassment is indicative of a structural problem in the South’s campaign environment—the lack of media laws in place. The press release said:

As we speak, the draft South Sudan Media Laws are still sitting in the Southern Sudan Assembly awaiting enactment. Meanwhile, we conduct elections campaigns in an environment where the media is still playing a game of football without clear rules, a Russian Roulette game where journalists have no idea which opinion expressed contains the next bullet, worse still for not knowing from whom in particular the whistle is coming.

Similar practices are taking place in the North, where new rules recently published by the elections commission have created a highly restrictive environment for campaigning by opposition parties. One new rule requires parties to give 72 hours notice for rallies held even within party premises.

On Thursday, security forces broke up a voter education campaign in Khartoum held by civil society group Girifna. According to the Africa Center for Justice and Peace Studies, three members of the organization were arrested and charged for “public noisiness.” The day before, Sudanese state radio blocked Umma party presidential candidate Al-Sadiq Al-Mahdi from airing his 20-minute radio broadcast because of points in his speech that were seen as “inciting prejudices and hatred against the state,” including a reference to incumbent president Omar al-Bashir’s ICC arrest warrant.

With so many instances of political oppression, it’s hard to be optimistic about the prospect for free and fair elections in Sudan. One clear first step is for government to enact equitable electoral legislation that will help create an environment in which opposition politics can survive. In the final weeks before polling begins, U.S. and E.U. monitors must also ensure that they are not simply assessing the elections themselves, but evaluating whether the larger human and political rights context is in place for elections to even have a chance.

Technorati Tags: Darfur and Southern Sudan Peace Prevention Protection Sudan Now

JUBA, Southern Sudan  – “So far in southern Sudan we don’t have ruling parties. Who voted for these people [who currently lead the Government of Southern Sudan]?” asked a representative of an opposition party at a political parties’ summit organized by the African Union in Juba on March 1-2. The summit gave parties competing in the upcoming nationwide elections the chance to discuss concerns they have with the electoral process in the South and to engage in discussion with each other and with the South’s ruling party, the SPLM. In several sessions, opposition parties and members of the SPLM who have opted to run as independent candidates were empowered to raise issues directly not only with the African Union High Level Implementation Panel on Sudan, but also with Riek Machar, vice president of the Government of Southern Sudan and a leading member of the SPLM.

Although Machar technically represents one of the political parties competing in the elections, he also represents the southern government, so opposition party members were particularly interested in directing questions at him. Interestingly, one of the sessions focused less on electoral procedures and more on issues concerning the South in general, churning up heated questions of the moment, including rumors of a possible delay of the elections, and concerns that the referendum would subsequently be pushed back. The discussion between opposition members and the GoSS vice president was a fairly open dialogue. Alex de Waal (who is currently working with the African Union High Level Implementation Panel on Sudan) aptly describes the significance of this summit:

The summit meeting was remarkable. It brought the contending party leaders in the south into the same room. Even two weeks ago, the SPLM leadership was insisting that Lam Akol, the leader of SPLM-DC, would not be permitted to campaign in southern Sudan, and there was also acrimony between the SPLM and many independent candidates. The SPLM leadership has not yet agreed to sit around the table with SPLM members who are running as independents, but over the last two days it was ready to discuss at length with all the other political parties putting up candidates in southern Sudan, including Lam Akol’s SPLM-DC. Several of these parties made specific complaints in the meeting, about violations of their freedom to campaign, arrest and detention of their members and agents, and confiscation of their materials. The Vice President of the Government of Southern Sudan, Riek Machar, listened patiently to these points, responded to many, and promised to take up others. Given the polarization that loomed, the cordial atmosphere in the summit was extraordinary.

At the conclusion of the summit, all of the political parties contesting in the elections in southern Sudan – a total of 17 rival groups – signed an Electoral Code of Conduct. To read the Electoral Code of Conduct and the Declaration of Common Commitments (related to broader Sudan issues such as CPA implementation), visit the Making Sense of Sudan blog. Watch Enough Said and Making Sense of Sudan for updates as the AU Panel continues to work with political parties in the South to ensure implementation of the Electoral Code of Conduct and encourage a free and fair electoral process.

It is worth noting that while this initiative is an impressive step in the right direction and that all of the political parties competing in the South should be recognized for the achievement, the elections are less than 50 days away; it is a shame that this and other efforts to encourage and promote a democratic electoral process in Sudan were not undertaken (or permitted by the ruling parties) earlier in this process.

Technorati Tags: Darfur and Southern Sudan Sudan Now

Last week Sudan’s two main parties, the ruling NCP and its southern counterpart the SPLM, reached a major deal on the allocation of parliamentary seats. The two parties agreed on giving the South 40 extra seats, or, 27 percent of Sudan’s parliament.

This careful number falls below 28 percent, the number of seats awarded to the South’s ruling party under the 2005 peace deal, but just above 26 percent, the number of votes needed to block any attempts by the NCP to amend the constitution.  In other words, come April, the new southern bloc voted into parliament will have the power to bar any NCP attempt at writing the referendum out of the constitution. The deal also allocated extra seats to two oil-rich border regions, Abyei and Southern Kordofan.

This 27 percent compromise may also be the start to resolving the longstanding census dispute between North and South, with the two sides arguing over the true population figure for South Sudan. Census results released last year calculated that the South’s population was only 21 percent of Sudan’s population—a number highly disputed by the southern government, who insisted that the South made up a third of the total population. One reason why this number was so significant was that the population proportion would translate into the proportion of seats, or political power, the South would be given. Now that the two parties have essentially reached an agreement on power-sharing, it remains to be seen whether the magical 27 percent will become the de facto number used for the census, and thus for other issues of consequence—i.e. determining the outcome of the referendum vote.

On a larger scale, the 27 percent compromise represents continued deal-making at the elite NCP-SPLM level. While this behind-the-door bargaining may offer short-term peace and stability for the country, it also means that the two parties have entered into a pact of maintaining each other’s respective political monopolies—a distasteful and unsustainable outcome for a Sudanese population whose varied opinions and priorities cannot possibly be encompassed within two political agendas.

Other signs point clearly to the two parties’ determination to remain not only in power, but be the only ones in power. A report issued by Human Rights Watch in January documented widespread oppression and harassment of political opposition by both the NCP and the SPLM. In a letter sent yesterday to the E.U. Election Observation Mission to Sudan, Human Rights Watch said that without looking at “entire human rights situation and how it is affecting the elections environment,” observers would not be doing their jobs right. In other words, let’s take a step back, look at the entire situation, and remember that whatever agreements are made, it’s ultimately about the 41,347,723 (this number is probably disputed too) Sudanese people. 

Photo: Children from Sudan's volatile Abyei region

Technorati Tags: Darfur and Southern Sudan Peace Sudan Now

The fighting that heated up in Darfur last week continued through the weekend, with the United Nations now estimating that 150 to 400 civilians have died. Quoting an unnamed U.N. official, Reuters reported today that the civilian death toll from recent spate of fighting in Darfur could be as high as 400 and that the U.N. and aid organizations have been unable to access the area due to insecurity. Reports indicate that the market town of Deribat has been the epicenter of the attacks by the Sudanese army in recent days, forcing an estimated 40,000 people from their homes.

A week into the negotiations, the framework agreement signed between the Sudanese government and JEM still stands. However, in part due to the ongoing violence, peace talks in Doha between the Sudanese government and the largest rebel group, JEM, have “all but collapsed,” reported a source at the negotiations. JEM leader Khalil Ibrahim continues to refuse to proceed with negotiations as long as plans continue for the government to simultaneously negotiate with other rebel groups. The 10 rebel groups negotiating as the Liberation and Justice Movement are still working to finalize a framework agreement with the Government of Sudan in preparation to negotiate on a parallel track to the JEM-Sudanese government talks.

Notably, the SLA-Abdel Wahid rebel group, a faction linked to the influential Darfuri leader based in Paris, continues to refuse to join the talks, hampering the long-term viability of the negotiations. As we reported last week, there’s a sense that the Sudanese government may have ratcheted up attacks in the Darfuri rebel stronghold of Jebel Marra in an effort to compel the SLA-AW to join the talks in Doha.

But other assessments of the Government of Sudan’s strategy in Jebel Marra look even more sinister.

Among some rebel leaders, the question has arisen about whether the government planned to use the current talks to neutralize JEM, militarily the strongest, so that the Sudanese army could redirect its firepower toward the other rebel groups. The recent surge in violence is “part of a military strategy that the government insists on pursuing” in Darfur, said an Enough source. Regardless of the true calculations behind the current swell in government attacks, it’s not difficult to see how rebel groups might conclude that the Sudanese government hasn’t demonstrated a “good faith” effort to work toward peace.

Now’s the time for the U.S. government to take a hard look at its policy of not simply assessing efforts to promote peace in Sudan on “process-related accomplishments (i.e. the signing of a MOU or the issuance of a set of visas), but rather based on verifiable changes in conditions on the ground.” There is a clear disconnect between the progress touted in Doha and the deteriorating conditions on the ground in Darfur. How will the United States respond?

Photo: Elders in a camp for displaced people, Darfur

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As talks proceed in Doha over peace in Darfur, bombs from government planes continued to fall on the rebel stronghold of Jebel Marra this week.

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This week has been an eventful one, with numerous important and fascinating developments occurring at the Darfur peace talks taking place in Doha, Qatar. Today, we issued a short report detailing these recent developments and trying to interpret the motivations and strategic considerations of the key players. Read the full report, A Peace Process Play-by-Play, and also check out comments from John Norris and John Prendergast on the latest developments in the accompanying press release.

With national elections a month away, this is obviously a key moment for Sudan, and there are lots of hurdles and personalities still standing in the way of a durable, comprehensive peace for Darfur. But negotiators have made some important progress, even as the process still feels inherently fragile. It may still be too early to analyze exactly what will come of these negotiations, but we will continue to do our best to keep you up to date. Check back for updates.

Photo: Darfur rebel leader Khalil Ibrahim of the Justice and Equality Movement (AP/Omer Faisal)

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To mark the 50 days until Sudan’s nationwide election, grassroots activists around the United States have kicked off Sudan Sham Elections 2010, a campaign to press U.S. leaders to take a firmer line in Sudan. In particular, activists are expressing their distaste for the U.S. government’s decision to allocate $100 million in taxpayers’ money to an election they believe “will be anything but free and fair,” said Tzivia Schwartz Getzug, Executive Director of Jewish World Watch and one of the campaign’s leaders.

During the 50 days of the campaign, each state will sponsor a day of activism to advocate for a shift in U.S. policy. The campaign centers on concern among activists that there is no way for elections to be credible in the face of political intimidation, ongoing insecurity in Darfur, and in light of the expectation that incumbent President Omar al-Bashir will be re-elected. Gabriel Stauring, Director of Stop Genocide Now, one of the groups coordinating the campaign, was incredulous:

"You have an indicted war criminal, Omar al-Bashir, as the candidate. The candidate and current president of Sudan, a post he attained through military coup, and his government is responsible for millions of deaths across Sudan. They control the elections, and they continue to terrorize Sudanese citizens in the days leading up to this sham. We, as Americans, cannot legitimize al-Bashir in any way."

State chapters are finding creative ways to get their message across to elected officials. In Hawaii, activists are mailing a different photo and story of a Darfur refugee, a Peace Lei, and petition to Senators Daniel Inouye (D) and Daniel Akak (D) each day until the election. On March 13, Hawaii’s day of action, participants will follow up by calling their senators’ offices.

Stop Genocide Now reports that while activities have already begun in all states, they are still seeking leaders to volunteer to direct events in Arkansas, Delaware, Georgia, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Wyoming. If you live in one of those states and would like to take the lead with Sudan Sham activities, send an email to contact(at)sudansham2010(dot)org.

For information on how to get involved in events across the country, visit www.sudansham2010.org.

Technorati Tags: Advocacy Darfur and Southern Sudan Peace Prevention Sudan Now