All signs indicate that Sudan, Africa’s largest state, will very soon split in two - either peacefully or violently. A report written by Enough’s South Sudan researcher Maggie Fick and published today argues that the Obama administration must do its utmost to prevent a return to full-scale war in Sudan.

In a self-determination referendum scheduled for January 2011, the people of southern Sudan are widely expected to vote for separation from their northern neighbors. Yet, with the security situation in southern Sudan still highly volatile, next month’s national election set to be deeply flawed, and several crucial elements of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, or CPA, still unimplemented, the referendum and its outcome are by no means guaranteed.

As a guarantor of the CPA, the United States must work multilaterally on several fronts to support the peaceful expression of the will of the people of southern Sudan and prevent a return to conflict, the report argues. As Maggie Fick noted:

"The Sudanese parties must complete many difficult tasks to prepare for the 2011 referendum and its outcome. The international community's role is to reduce the likelihood that the upcoming negotiations occur in an environment so politically charged that consensus between the parties becomes impossible."

Photo: People flock to a political rally in Juba (Enough/Maggie Fick)