In a new ENOUGH report released today, 15 Years After Black Hawk Down: Somalia's Chance?, Co-Chair John Prendergast argues that Somalia is at a crucial crossroads. Just as the Somali insurgency is intensifying, a possible window of opportunity has swung open in the form of an offer by the Prime Minister of the embattled Ethiopian-backed Transitional Federal Government for a power sharing agreement to end the war. This is the first real sign of flexibility from an entity that until now has ruled by exclusion and divisiveness. The country could further descend into a civil war or it could take this opportunity to reverse the decline through negotiations and internationally-supported state reconstruction.
"If the international community quickly fills the peacemaking vacuum by supporting a process for real dialogue, then Somalia may have a chance to end its long and costly war," says Prendergast, "If it does not, the insurgency will expand further and the human rights and humanitarian crisis will deepen, strengthening an Islamist movement that could pose a grave regional and international threat."
In 1993, Somali militias shot down two U.S. helicopters and killed 18 American servicemen in a battle that also killed more than 1,000 Somalis. Since that day, U.S. involvement has been rooted in counter-terrorism efforts, barely factoring in the suffering of the Somali people, who now face emerging conditions of famine in large parts of the south. Fundamental human rights and the international 'responsibility to protect' principle have been sacrificed on the altar of counter-terrorism, but in so doing, U.S. engagement in Somalia is actually fostering the rise of Islamist radicalism across the region and playing into the hands of extremists
This is the first in a series of strategy papers by ENOUGH that will explore the complex situation in the Horn of Africa. The series will examine the human rights crises in Somalia and the Ogaden, the damaging standoff between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and the roles that terrorist organizations and U.S. counter-terrorism policy play in the region. There are widely divergent views on how to interpret the facts on the ground. The ENOUGH Project hopes that this series will provide the chance to look at different sides of this spiraling regional crisis, and we hope that our suggestions for action on the part of the U.S. Government and the United Nations Security Council will provide a path forward.
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